
Precious Metal Price Predictions – Gold Retreats Amid Dollar Strength; Silver and Platinum Show Mixed Performance
October 4, 2024
Anticipating Silver Price Movement in Q4 2024
October 6, 2024Silver prices fell on Friday as a robust U.S. Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) report surpassed expectations, sparking concerns of prolonged high interest rates. The unexpected increase in job numbers has raised speculation that the Federal Reserve may maintain elevated interest rates for a longer period than previously anticipated. This news led to a decline in silver prices, with XAG/USD trading at $31.73, down by $0.30 or -0.93% at 13:02 GMT. The surge in U.S. Treasury yields and the dollar, following the positive NFP report, exerted downward pressure on silver. A strong dollar makes silver more costly for international buyers, reducing demand for the metal. With the 10-year Treasury yield rising by over 11 basis points to 3.967% and the 2-year yield climbing 15 basis points to 3.87%, the market is adjusting to a more robust economy, implying fewer interest rate cuts in the near future. Technically, silver is encountering resistance at the previous week’s high of $32.72, and a break above this level may indicate a continuation of the uptrend with possible targets around $34.35. Conversely, a breach below support levels at $31.21 and $30.88 could signal a shift in the market trend, leading to further declines. The stronger employment figures have reignited speculation about the Federal Reserve’s future actions. Traders are now pricing in an 89.5% probability of a 25-basis-point rate cut at the Fed’s November meeting, down from previous expectations of a 50-basis-point cut. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell emphasized that future rate adjustments will depend on labor market strength and inflation levels, with the recent job growth supporting arguments for smaller rate cuts. Amidst the stronger dollar and rising Treasury yields, silver may face continued downward pressure unless it breaks through the resistance at $32.72. Support levels around $30.88 will be crucial in determining the metal’s next direction, with upcoming Fed meetings poised to heavily impact silver’s trajectory going forward. Traders should exercise caution as any deviation in rate cut expectations could lead to heightened volatility in the silver market.