Saudi Arabia stocks closed lower on Sunday, with the Tadawul All Share index dropping by 1.58%. Losses in the Industrial Investment, Real Estate Development, and Transport sectors contributed to the decline. Some of the top performers on the Tadawul All Share included Al Baha Investment and Development Company SJSC, which rose by 7.14%, United Wire Factories Company, up 3.32%, and Kingdom Holding Company, which saw a 2.23% increase. On the other hand, Saudi Ceramic Co., Al ELM Information Security Company CJSC, and Arab Sea Information Systems Co SJSC were among the worst performers of the session, falling by 7.26%, 6.79%, and 6.76% respectively. The Saudi Arabia Stock Exchange saw 261 stocks decline, 36 advance, and 12 remain unchanged. In commodities trading, crude oil prices rose, with Brent oil hitting $78.14 a barrel. Meanwhile, gold futures fell to $2,673.20 a troy ounce. The EUR/SAR pair was down 0.42% at 4.12, while the USD/SAR pair was unchanged at 3.76. The US Dollar Index Futures increased by 0.52% to 102.28.

Recent data shows silver outperforming gold, with a 1.82% increase to $32.20, thanks to unique factors such as Chinese stimulus aimed at boosting industrial demand. While strong U.S. job data may deter aggressive Fed rate cuts, silver’s rise is fueled by industrial demand, geopolitical risks, and its safe-haven appeal. The Chinese stimulus is expected to drive silver’s industrial demand, especially in sectors like electronics and solar energy. Geopolitical uncertainties, like the Middle East tensions, continue to bolster silver as a safe-haven asset. Despite challenges like rising Treasury yields, silver’s industrial demand balances the market. While silver remains near a 12-year high, caution is advised amidst evolving Fed policy and market volatility.

Silver has exhibited positive momentum in the initial three quarters of 2024, with indications of a potential surge in the fourth quarter. The third quarter of 2024 witnessed consolidation, forming a bullish pattern that forecasts optimistic momentum heading into Q4. This article analyzes both fundamental and technical aspects of the silver market to project potential price fluctuations in Q4 2024. Emergence of Positive Trends in the Silver Market Historically, the silver market has experienced robust growth driven by factors such as increased global demand for industrial and monetary purposes. From the 1930s to the 1970s, a surge in demand was observed due to the economic impact of the Great Depression, prompting significant government involvement in precious metals. Following World War II, industrial recovery further boosted the demand for silver in various technological applications. Despite a decline post the market peak in the late 1970s, subsequent price corrections have formed positive patterns, indicating potential upward movement. The recent trend in 2024 points towards a target price of $43 in spot silver, with a breakout above this level potentially triggering a strong surge. Assessment of Q3 2024 Price Trends The candlestick chart analysis reveals a consistent bullish formation in silver prices, with signals pointing towards a target of $50. The silver market has displayed upward momentum, emphasized by buy signals in Q3 2022 and Q4 2022, resulting in a potential rally towards all-time highs. The consolidation breakout in Q3 2024 suggests a positive trajectory, with a projected resistance area between $43 and $50. A quarterly close above this range could mark the onset of a substantial price increase in Q4 2024. Outlook for Q4 2024 Considering the positive price movements in the past three quarters, Q4 2024 is expected to continue the upward trend in silver prices. The formation of an inverted head and shoulders pattern in Q3 2024, along with attempts to breach the key resistance level of $32.50, indicates a potential breakout for higher gains. The comparison of monthly closing patterns further supports the likelihood of a positive price trend in October 2024. Silver’s alignment with gold’s rally and favorable demand dynamics position silver for a significant price surge in Q4 2024. Factors Driving Silver Demand in Q4 2024 Growing industrial and green energy demand, central bank policies, and supply constraints are key factors contributing to the bullish outlook for silver in Q4 2024. The expansion of the green energy sector, coupled with increasing industrial usage, positions silver as a critical resource. Dovish monetary policies and currency dynamics further support silver prices by amplifying its appeal as a hedge against currency devaluation. Moreover, supply constraints and market sentiment indicate a potential supply deficit, enhancing silver’s attractiveness as a safe-haven asset. In conclusion, the analysis suggests a positive price trajectory for silver in Q4 2024, driven by technical formations, demand dynamics, and supportive macroeconomic factors. Investors are advised to consider buying silver with targets set at $43 and $50 levels, emphasizing the potential for further price appreciation in the coming months.

The silver market experienced a slight pullback early on Friday, but quickly reversed course following the release of positive job numbers that boosted market sentiment. The uptick in job creation in the U.S. is expected to drive up industrial demand for silver. Additionally, the rise in gold prices was seen as a reflection of Wall Street’s optimism towards the economy, without concerns about the Federal Reserve deviating from its rate-cutting plans. This positive outlook led to a general increase in asset values. Analysts suggest that short-term dips in silver prices present buying opportunities, with a potential support level forming around $30. The market’s movement between the 50% and 61.8% Fibonacci retracement levels indicates a typical pullback and continuation pattern. Looking ahead, the focus will be on the $30 level as a key indicator of the prevailing trend. Despite the possibility of minor setbacks, it is anticipated that silver prices will continue to climb, with a target around the $35 mark in the near future.

The US Dollar Index, also known as USDX, has witnessed its most significant weekly surge since 2022, defying prevailing theories of de-dollarization and sentiment cycles. While some may argue for the validity of such theories, current market movements do not necessarily reflect immediate or imminent outcomes. Typically, proponents of these theories gain traction when the USD Index hits rock bottom, leading to a perception of bearish sentiment towards the currency. However, it is essential to recognize that these analyses may not translate into immediate or near-term declines for the US dollar, with potential effects spanning across many years. In reality, prevailing sentiment towards the USD Index often reaches extreme negativity, prompting the belief that a downward trajectory is inevitable based on historical price trends rather than a forward-looking outlook. Amidst a plethora of theories supporting such views, individuals latch onto these narratives to justify their expectations of a weakening USD Index, despite an underlying subconscious anticipation of a continued decline due to past performance. This pattern has recently played out with the USD Index, which has seen a record-breaking rally following a period of negative sentiment. The index surged vigorously, bouncing back from previous lows and even exceeding the rising support line established since 2023. With the RSI indicator signaling oversold conditions and the robust momentum of the rally, similarities have been drawn to a post-bottom rally witnessed in mid-2023, suggesting significant upside potential for the USD Index. As the USD Index charts depict this remarkable rally, the dynamics within the precious metals sector post its mid-2023 decline raise pertinent observations. Notably, while mining stocks experienced a noticeable downward trend, gold exhibited hesitancy in following suit. A similar divergence persists currently, hinting at a potential impending downturn in precious metals markets. The USD Index’s recent breakout above a medium-term declining support line has paved the way for a sustained rally, fostering an optimistic outlook for the US currency in the months ahead. Conversely, gold and silver prices remain uncertain, with a looming prospect of decline supported by technical indicators and market dynamics. Looking ahead, as the precious metals market braces for a potential downturn in response to the USD Index’s strength, junior mining stocks, particularly the GDXJ, are expected to lead the descent, mirroring previous market trends observed in 2020 and 2008. Ultimately, successful trading and investing require a balance of fear and greed, emphasizing the importance of patience, contrarian thinking, and prudent risk management strategies to navigate volatile market conditions and secure long-term profitability.

Silver prices fell on Friday as a robust U.S. Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) report surpassed expectations, sparking concerns of prolonged high interest rates. The unexpected increase in job numbers has raised speculation that the Federal Reserve may maintain elevated interest rates for a longer period than previously anticipated. This news led to a decline in silver prices, with XAG/USD trading at $31.73, down by $0.30 or -0.93% at 13:02 GMT. The surge in U.S. Treasury yields and the dollar, following the positive NFP report, exerted downward pressure on silver. A strong dollar makes silver more costly for international buyers, reducing demand for the metal. With the 10-year Treasury yield rising by over 11 basis points to 3.967% and the 2-year yield climbing 15 basis points to 3.87%, the market is adjusting to a more robust economy, implying fewer interest rate cuts in the near future. Technically, silver is encountering resistance at the previous week’s high of $32.72, and a break above this level may indicate a continuation of the uptrend with possible targets around $34.35. Conversely, a breach below support levels at $31.21 and $30.88 could signal a shift in the market trend, leading to further declines. The stronger employment figures have reignited speculation about the Federal Reserve’s future actions. Traders are now pricing in an 89.5% probability of a 25-basis-point rate cut at the Fed’s November meeting, down from previous expectations of a 50-basis-point cut. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell emphasized that future rate adjustments will depend on labor market strength and inflation levels, with the recent job growth supporting arguments for smaller rate cuts. Amidst the stronger dollar and rising Treasury yields, silver may face continued downward pressure unless it breaks through the resistance at $32.72. Support levels around $30.88 will be crucial in determining the metal’s next direction, with upcoming Fed meetings poised to heavily impact silver’s trajectory going forward. Traders should exercise caution as any deviation in rate cut expectations could lead to heightened volatility in the silver market.